← Game Kastle Greenville: Grand Archive Regional Championship
Water Dawn of AshesTier 2
at Game Kastle Greenville: Grand Archive Regional Championship
decks
1
(3.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
1-3-1
overall winrate
30.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
44.5%
avg ELO -3.2 per match
expected value
45.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1170
· median 1170
· range 1170–1170
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1054
Q1 1171
Q3 1357
1464
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 18.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.8% | +3.6 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 12.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.2% | -14.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 9.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 9.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.2% | -14.1 |
| Water Neos | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 3.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.2% | +5.1 |
| Fire Arisanna | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Lorraine | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Dawn of Ashes decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
